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Modeling of motor fuel consumption in Serbia with projection to 2025
Modelovanje potrošnje motornih goriva u Srbiji sa projekcijama do 2025. godine
dc.creator | Marinković, Dalibor | |
dc.creator | Popović, Zoran | |
dc.creator | Orlović, Aleksandar | |
dc.creator | Ristić, Mirjana | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-10T11:48:30Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-03-10T11:48:30Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0367-598X | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://TechnoRep.tmf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2099 | |
dc.description.abstract | This study is based on the application of mathematical methods of statistical analysis that can be used to predict the development of motor fuel consumption in the Republic of Serbia. It is based on the linear dependence of consumption growth of motor fuel from the development of gross domestic product per capita, which is then corrected by introducing five additional influencing parameters. The model results indicate that the total consumption of motor fuels in Serbia from 2010 to 2025 will be increased by 26.5%. Individual consumption of motor fuels shows different market tendencies. Diesel fuel consumption expects to continue intensive growth to 2025, even though slightly slower than the achievements in the last decade. The current trend of declining demand for gasoline will be stopped from 2015-2016, then followed by slow growth of demand by 2025. Consumption of liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG) will enter the phase of saturation in 2015. | en |
dc.description.abstract | Ovaj rad se bazira na primeni metoda matematičke statističke analize koji mogu da posluže za predviđanje razvoja potrošnje motornih goriva u Republici Srbiji. Model je baziran na linearnoj zavisnosti rasta obima potrošnje motornih goriva od razvoja bruto domaćeg proizvoda po glavi stanovnika koja je potom korigovana uvođenjem pet dodatnih uticajnih parametara. Svakom od ovih parametara dodeljen je odgovarajući koeficijent koji odmerava specifični uticaj istog na potrošnju motornih goriva. Rezultati modela ukazuju da će ukupna potrošnja motornih goriva u Srbiji od 2010. do 2025. biti uvećana za 26,5%, sa 2,36 Mt/god na 2,99 Mt/god. Potrošnju dizel goriva očekuje nastavak intenzivnog rasta, doduše nešto usporen u odnosu na ostvarenja u prethodnoj dekadi i do 2025. potrošnja će dostići nivo od blizu 2 Mt. Postojeći trend opadanja tražnje motornih benzina biće zaustavljen 2015-2016, nakon toga sledi spori rast tražnje i do 2025. potrošnja će biti oko 550 Kt. Potrošnja tečnog naftnog gasa (TNG) nakon intenzivnog rasta od 2015. ući će u fazu saturacije, tako da će u periodu 2010-2025. godine zabeležiti mali porast potrošnje - sa 377 na 435 Kt/god. | sr |
dc.publisher | Association of Chemical Engineers of Serbia | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)/45001/RS// | |
dc.rights | openAccess | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | |
dc.source | Hemijska industrija | |
dc.subject | consumption of petroleum products | en |
dc.subject | GDP | en |
dc.subject | mathematical model | en |
dc.subject | Republic of Serbia | en |
dc.subject | potrošnja naftnih derivata | sr |
dc.subject | BDP | sr |
dc.subject | matematički model | sr |
dc.subject | Srbija | sr |
dc.title | Modeling of motor fuel consumption in Serbia with projection to 2025 | en |
dc.title | Modelovanje potrošnje motornih goriva u Srbiji sa projekcijama do 2025. godine | sr |
dc.type | article | |
dc.rights.license | BY-NC-ND | |
dc.citation.epage | 423 | |
dc.citation.issue | 3 | |
dc.citation.other | 66(3): 413-423 | |
dc.citation.rank | M23 | |
dc.citation.spage | 413 | |
dc.citation.volume | 66 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.2298/HEMIND110224105M | |
dc.identifier.fulltext | http://TechnoRep.tmf.bg.ac.rs/bitstream/id/8941/1085.pdf | |
dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-84865625686 | |
dc.identifier.wos | 000310493000015 | |
dc.type.version | publishedVersion |