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Estimation of GHG emission in Serbia for period 1995-2013 using recurent neural networks
Emisije gasova staklene bašte u Srbiji za period 1995-2013. godina primenom rekurentnih neuronskih mreža
dc.creator | Stamenković, Lidija J. | |
dc.creator | Antanasijević, Davor | |
dc.creator | Ristić, Mirjana | |
dc.creator | Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra | |
dc.creator | Pocajt, Viktor | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-10T12:42:50Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-03-10T12:42:50Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0354-3285 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://TechnoRep.tmf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2954 | |
dc.description.abstract | The aim of this work was to create an ANN model for the prediction of GHG emissions in the Republic of Serbia in the period 1995-2013. Because of the lack of GHG emission data and inputs for Serbia, the ANN model was initially developed for Bulgaria, using the gross domestic product per capita (GDP) and annual energy production per capita (GPE) as inputs. The model was trained and validated with the data for Bulgaria for the period from 1990 to 2011,using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture. The results obtained for Serbia indicate a good agreement between the calculated and predicted GHG emissions in 1998, with an error of only 3%. The predicted change in the emission of GHG in the studied period is in agreement with social and economical factors that can be related to the changes in GHG emissions(e.g. emission reduction of about 10% in 1999). The RNN model predicts that the GHG emissions in 2013was above the level in 1998, but still lower than the GHG emissions calculated for the year 1990. | en |
dc.description.abstract | Cilj ovog rada je bio kreiranje modela, zasnovanog na veštačkim neuronskim mrežama, za predviđanje emisije GHG u Republici Srbiji. Zbog nedostatka podataka o GHG emisiji u Republici Srbiji, model je razvijen korišćenjem podataka za Republiku Bugarsku, a zatim je primenjen i na Republiku Srbiju. Kao ulazni parametri korišćeni su bruto d omaći proizvod po stanovniku (BDP) i godišnja proizvodnja energije po stanovniku (GPE). Model je treniran i testiran sa podacima za Bugarsku za period od 1990 do 2011. godine, pri čemu je korišćena rekurentna neuronska mreža (RNN). Rezultati za Republiku Srbiju pokazuju dobro slaganje između proračunate i modelom predviđene vrednosti emisije GHG za 1998. godinu, sa odstupanjem od svega 3%. Analiza predviđenog trenda ukazuje na promene u emisiji koje su bile posledica društvenih okolnosti (smanjenje emisije od oko 10% tokom 1999. godine). Model pokazuje da je emisija GHG-a u 2013. godini prestigla nivo iz 1998. godine, ali će i dalje biti ispod vrednosti emisije proračunate za 1990. godinu. | sr |
dc.publisher | Naučno-stručno društvo za zaštitu životne sredine Srbije - Ecologica, Beograd | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Basic Research (BR or ON)/172007/RS// | |
dc.rights | openAccess | |
dc.source | Ecologica | |
dc.subject | GHG emission forecast | en |
dc.subject | artificial neural networks | en |
dc.subject | Serbia | en |
dc.subject | emisija gasova staklene bašte | sr |
dc.subject | veštačke neuronske mreže | sr |
dc.subject | Srbija | sr |
dc.title | Estimation of GHG emission in Serbia for period 1995-2013 using recurent neural networks | en |
dc.title | Emisije gasova staklene bašte u Srbiji za period 1995-2013. godina primenom rekurentnih neuronskih mreža | sr |
dc.type | article | |
dc.rights.license | ARR | |
dc.citation.epage | 492 | |
dc.citation.issue | 79 | |
dc.citation.other | 22(79): 488-492 | |
dc.citation.rank | M51 | |
dc.citation.spage | 488 | |
dc.citation.volume | 22 | |
dc.identifier.fulltext | http://TechnoRep.tmf.bg.ac.rs/bitstream/id/988/2951.pdf | |
dc.identifier.rcub | https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_technorep_2954 | |
dc.type.version | publishedVersion |